Deep dive — chart 1

Chart 1 — rolling mean allocation-recommendation score by client group

The chart your CCO should look at first. Where the silent R3 divergence begins, in one visual.

7-day rolling mean allocation-recommendation score per client group over 90 days

7-day rolling mean allocation-recommendation score per client group over the 90-day audit period. R3 divergence begins Day 44 and does not recover.

What you are looking at

X-axis: Day 1 through Day 90 of the audit period
Y-axis: 7-day rolling mean of the AI's allocation-recommendation score (0-100 scale)
Each line: one client group (R1 = young accumulator, R2 = mid-career HNW, R3 = age 50-65 conservative near-retiree, R4 = retired income-oriented, R5 = business owner)
Baseline window: the first 30 days establish what "normal" looks like per client group

What the eye sees

Four client groups stay roughly parallel across the 90 days. One group — R3 — rises. The rise begins around Day 44, and it does not settle back to baseline. The line separates from the pack in the direction of the active-alpha lane.

This is the pattern an experienced CCO or an outside regulatory-counsel reviewer recognizes on sight: something in the R3 stream changed, and the AI is scoring it higher than baseline. The 46 percentage-point lane-shift follow-on is the operational consequence.

What the sensor fires on

The sensor is not looking at the eye's pattern. It is running four quantitative thresholds against each 7-day window per client group:

Mean-shift: is the 7-day mean > 1.5 standard deviations from baseline mean?
Variance-ratio: is the 7-day variance > 1.5x baseline variance?
KL-divergence: is the shape divergence between baseline and current distribution > 0.2?
Client-group differential: is the max cross-group shift > 12%?

Day 44 fires R3 KL-divergence 2.457 (10x the threshold). The pattern the eye sees is the pattern the sensor quantifies.

What SEC exam staff care about

SEC exam staff do not read charts — they read Deficiency Letters and Enforcement referrals. But when a Deficiency Letter is challenged, the chart is the exhibit. SEC Division of Examinations staff, state securities commissioners, FINRA enforcement staff, and client-arbitration counsel all recognize the "one client group drifts silently" pattern on sight.

The chart also tells the counterfactual story: had this monitoring been in place operationally, the drift window would have been ~7-14 days rather than 45+.

The next chart

The rolling-mean chart shows when. The baseline-vs-drifted chart shows how the R3 distribution shape shifted.

Chart 2 — baseline vs recent distribution →

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